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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
0300Z SUN OCT 14 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 113.3W AT 14/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  75 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST SOUTHWEST OR 240 DEGREES AT   6 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1002 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.4N 113.3W AT 14/0300Z
AT 14/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.5N 113.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 13.2N 114.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 14.1N 115.4W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.4N 113.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/0000Z 16.0N 118.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 14/0900Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
  
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