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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
1500Z SAT OCT 13 2001
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.3W AT 13/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1006 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.3W AT 13/1500Z
AT 13/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.4N 113.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 14/0000Z 14.2N 113.8W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 14/1200Z 14.0N 114.4W
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 15/0000Z 13.9N 115.0W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.4N 113.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 15/1200Z 14.0N 115.9W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 16/1200Z 14.3N 117.6W
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 13/2100Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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