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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
2100Z THU OCT 11 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.4W AT 11/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.9N 106.4W AT 11/2100Z
AT 11/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.7N 105.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 16.5N 107.9W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 17.0N 109.4W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0600Z 17.4N 111.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.9N 106.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1800Z 17.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1800Z 17.5N 117.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 12/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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