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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
1500Z THU OCT 11 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.4W AT 11/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  14 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.4N 105.4W AT 11/1500Z
AT 11/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.2N 104.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0000Z 15.9N 107.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1200Z 16.4N 109.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 13/0000Z 16.9N 110.6W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.4N 105.4W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/2100Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MOLLEDA
 
 
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