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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   EP1501
0900Z THU OCT 11 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 103.8W AT 11/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT  12 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1005 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE  60SE  60SW  60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 14.8N 103.8W AT 11/0900Z
AT 11/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 14.6N 103.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 11/1800Z 15.1N 105.3W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/0600Z 15.6N 107.2W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 12/1800Z 16.0N 108.8W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 14.8N 103.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 13/0600Z 16.3N 110.5W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 14/0600Z 16.5N 113.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 11/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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