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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
1500Z SUN NOV 04 2001
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR ALL OF THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM
OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA...
INCLUDING THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA
FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND ALONG THE WEST COAST
OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.
 
AT 10 AM EST...1500 UTC THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS REPLACED
THE HURRICANE WATCH WITH A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE NORTHWESTERN
AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE
BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT
ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  82.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHEAST OR  40 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  950 MB
EYE DIAMETER  25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT.......140NE 125SE 125SW 140NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 21.3N  82.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 20.8N  82.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 22.7N  80.9W
MAX WIND 115 KT...GUSTS 140 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...140NE 125SE 125SW 140NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.3N  78.9W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 125SE 125SW 150NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 26.5N  74.5W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 21.3N  82.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.0N  70.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...150NE 150SE 125SW 150NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 35.0N  59.0W...EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 150SW 150NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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