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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0300Z SUN NOV 04 2001
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN CUBA FOR THE
PROVINCES FROM PINAR DEL RIO EASTWARD TO CIEGO DE AVILA INCLUDING
THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR
THE FLORIDA KEYS FROM OCEAN REEF WESTWARD TO THE DRY TORTUGAS...
INCLUDING FLORIDA BAY. A HURRICANE WARNING MAY BE REQUIRED FOR THE
FLORIDA KEYS ON SUNDAY MORNING.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS ISSUED FOR THE
EAST COAST OF FLORIDA FROM JUPITER INLET SOUTHWARD TO OCEAN REEF AND
ALONG THE WEST COAST OF FLORIDA SOUTH OF BONITA BEACH.
 
AT 10 PM EST...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF THE BAHAMAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE NORTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL BAHAMAS. THIS
INCLUDES GRAND BAHAMA...THE ABACOS...THE BERRY ISLANDS... BIMINI
...ANDROS...NEW PROVIDENCE...ELEUTHERA...CAT ISLAND...EXUMAS...SAN
SALVADOR...RUM CAY AND LONG ISLAND.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  83.5W AT 04/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH NORTHEAST OR  30 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  944 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..200NE 200SE 200SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 20.0N  83.5W AT 04/0300Z
AT 04/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 19.8N  83.8W
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 21.3N  82.8W
MAX WIND 120 KT...GUSTS 145 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 23.0N  81.7W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 24.0N  79.0W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 20.0N  83.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/0000Z 26.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/0000Z 32.5N  64.0W...BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
34 KT...200NE 200SE 200SW 200NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/0900Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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