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HURRICANE MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  17
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
2100Z FRI NOV 02 2001
 
A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING PROVINCES IN
WESTERN CUBA...PINAR DEL RIO...LA HABANA...HAVANA CITY...MATANZAS...
AND THE ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLAND OF GRAND CAYMAN.
 
ALL INTERESTS IN SOUTH FLORIDA AND THE FLORIDA KEYS SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF MICHELLE.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  84.1W AT 02/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  10 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   3 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  967 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  40SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE 100SE  60SW  90NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 175SE 125SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 18.2N  84.1W AT 02/2100Z
AT 02/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 18.0N  84.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 18.8N  84.3W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 19.7N  84.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0600Z 20.8N  84.1W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 18.2N  84.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/1800Z 22.0N  83.5W
MAX WIND  95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 24.5N  79.0W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE 125SW 125NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 03/0300Z
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
 
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