HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCMAT5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0900Z THU NOV 01 2001
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  83.5W AT 01/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  997 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE  60SW 300NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  83.5W AT 01/0900Z
AT 01/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.6N  83.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1800Z 17.4N  83.9W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  50SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 18.4N  84.3W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 19.3N  84.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.6N  83.5W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0600Z 20.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0600Z 21.5N  84.5W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT... 90NE  90SE  90SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
NNNN