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TROPICAL STORM MICHELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1501
0300Z THU NOV 01 2001
 
ALL INTERESTS IN THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA SHOULD CLOSELY
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  83.2W AT 01/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 350 DEGREES AT   5 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1001 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  35 KT WITH GUSTS TO  45 KT.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..300NE 120SE  60SW 360NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N  83.2W AT 01/0300Z
AT 01/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  83.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 01/1200Z 16.8N  83.4W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  20SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/0000Z 18.0N  83.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 80NE  80SE  40SW  80NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 02/1200Z 18.9N  84.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  50SW  80NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N  83.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 03/0000Z 20.0N  84.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  80SE  60SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 04/0000Z 22.0N  84.5W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  50SW  50NW.
34 KT...120NE  90SE  75SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 01/0900Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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