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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1201
1500Z SUN OCT 07 2001
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ST VINCENT AND THE
GRENADINE ISLANDS...TABAGO...GRENADA AND DEPENDENCIES.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  58.3W AT 07/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.7N  58.3W AT 07/1500Z
AT 07/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  57.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0000Z 12.2N  60.8W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.2N  64.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.0N  67.1W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.7N  58.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z 14.7N  69.6W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z 16.0N  73.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/2100Z
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
 
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