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TROPICAL STORM JERRY FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1201
0900Z SUN OCT 07 2001
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO HAS 
ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR TOBAGO.

AT 5 AM AST...0900Z...THE TRINIDAD AND TOBAGO METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE 
HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR BARBADOS...TOBAGO...
GRENADA AND ITS DEPENDENCIES.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  56.2W AT 07/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1003 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  40 KT WITH GUSTS TO  50 KT.
34 KT....... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.5N  56.2W AT 07/0900Z
AT 07/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 11.3N  55.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 11.9N  58.3W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 12.8N  61.2W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 13.8N  63.9W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  15SE  15SW  25NW.
34 KT... 70NE  50SE  50SW  70NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.5N  56.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 09/0600Z 14.6N  66.4W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  20SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT... 80NE  60SE  60SW  80NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N  71.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  25SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT... 90NE  70SE  70SW  90NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 07/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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