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HURRICANE IRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1101
0900Z MON OCT 08 2001
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF HONDURAS HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE GUATEMALA
BORDER.  ALSO AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING IS
RECOMMENDED FOR THE CARIBBEAN COAST OF GUATEMALA.  A HURRICANE
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900 UTC...THE HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE CAYMAN
ISLANDS IS DISCONTINUED.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  83.1W AT 08/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 260 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  963 MB
EYE DIAMETER   8 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  95 KT WITH GUSTS TO 115 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  83.1W AT 08/0900Z
AT 08/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.2N  82.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1800Z 17.0N  85.5W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 16.8N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  20NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  40SW  40NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1800Z 16.6N  91.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  83.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 16.5N  94.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 16.5N  98.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/1500Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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