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HURRICANE IRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1101
0300Z MON OCT 08 2001
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE COAST OF BELIZE.
 
AT 11 PM EDT...0300Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF GUATEMALA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING AND A HURRICANE WATCH FOR THEIR CARIBBEAN
COASTLINE.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MEXICAN EAST COAST OF
THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CABO CATOCHE SOUTHWARD TO THE BELIZE
BORDER.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAIN IN
EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF HONDURAS FROM LIMON WESTWARD TO THE
BELIZE BORDER INCLUDING ADJACENT ISLANDS.
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  THIS
WARNING WILL LIKELY BE LOWERED EARLY ON MONDAY MORNING.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  81.3W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  17 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  988 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  80 KT WITH GUSTS TO 100 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT.......100NE  75SE  50SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  81.3W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.3N  80.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 17.4N  83.7W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 17.4N  86.7W
MAX WIND  90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  10SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  20SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 17.3N  89.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  75SE   0SW   0NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N  81.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 10/0000Z 17.2N  93.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 11/0000Z 17.0N  97.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 08/0900Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
 
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