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TROPICAL STORM IRIS FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL1101
2100Z FRI OCT 05 2001
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR THE
SOUTH COAST OF HAITI FROM THE BORDER WITH THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC TO
TO THE SOUTHWESTERN TIP OF HAITI...ANSE D HAINAULT. ALSO...THE
GOVERNMENT OF THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WARNING
FOR THE BARAHONA PENINSULA FROM BARAHONA TO THE BORDER WITH HAITI.
 
AT 5 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS ISSUED A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR JAMAICA. IT MAY BE NECESSARY TO UPGRADE THE
TROPICAL STORM WATCH TO A HURRICANE WATCH TONIGHT OR SATURDAY.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE SOUTH COAST OF
THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC FROM ISLA SAONA TO BARAHONA.
  
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  66.8W AT 05/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT  15 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 20NE   0SE   0SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 90NE  75SE  25SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..120NE 100SE  75SW 120NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.8N  66.8W AT 05/2100Z
AT 05/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  66.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0600Z 16.6N  69.1W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE   0SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.2N  72.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.0N  75.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.8N  66.8W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1800Z 18.5N  78.0W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 08/1800Z 19.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  75 KT...GUSTS  90 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 120SW 120NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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