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TROPICAL STORM ERIN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0601
1500Z TUE SEP 04 2001
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  53.1W AT 04/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  40 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  16 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  45 KT WITH GUSTS TO  55 KT.
34 KT.......100NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE  75SE   0SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.1N  53.1W AT 04/1500Z
AT 04/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 17.0N  52.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 05/0000Z 17.5N  55.5W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE   0SW  50NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 18.5N  58.0W
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 20.0N  60.0W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE  30SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.1N  53.1W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 21.5N  61.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...100NE  75SE  75SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z 23.0N  63.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  40SE  40SW  40NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE  75SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 04/2100Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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