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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
1500Z SUN AUG 19 2001
 
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF BELIZE HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FROM BELIZE CITY NORTHWARD...AND THE GOVERNMENT OF
MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN.  ALSO
AT 11 AM EDT...1500Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR JAMAICA.  A HURRICANE WATCH AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE SOUTH OF BELIZE
CITY.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  80.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  13 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1004 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  60 KT WITH GUSTS TO  75 KT.
50 KT....... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......150NE 100SE   0SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 150SE  50SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  80.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  79.6W
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 16.5N  82.0W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 75NE  30SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE   0SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 17.7N  84.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 19.0N  86.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 75NE  50SE  25SW  40NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  80.3W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/1200Z 20.5N  88.5W...INLAND
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  25SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/1200Z 23.5N  91.5W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...150NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
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