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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
0900Z SUN AUG 19 2001
 
...CORRECTED TO CONTINUE HURRICANE WATCH FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS... 
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR JAMAICA AND THE
CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR
BELIZE...AND FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN.

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.
 
AT 5 AM EDT...0900Z...THE GOVERNMENT OF JAMAICA HAS DISCONTINUED
THE HURRICANE WATCH FOR ALL OF JAMAICA.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  78.6W AT 19/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  15 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT  10 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  994 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  55 KT WITH GUSTS TO  65 KT.
50 KT....... 60NE  20SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......125NE 100SE  20SW 100NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE  50SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.5N  78.6W AT 19/0900Z
AT 19/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.4N  78.1W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1800Z 16.0N  80.2W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  30SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...125NE 100SE  40SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0600Z 16.7N  82.4W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  20SW  40NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1800Z 17.6N  84.4W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
50 KT... 60NE  50SE  30SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE 100SE  60SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.5N  78.6W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0600Z 18.9N  86.3W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
50 KT... 60NE  40SE  40SW  60NW.
34 KT...130NE 110SE  70SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0600Z 21.5N  89.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  20SE  20SW  50NW.
34 KT...130NE  90SE  60SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/1500Z
 
FORECASTER STEWART
 
 
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