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TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
0300Z SUN AUG 19 2001
 
A HURRICANE WATCH AND A TROPICAL STORM WARNING CONTINUE IN EFFECT
FOR JAMAICA AND THE CAYMAN ISLANDS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH
CONTINUES IN EFFECT FOR BELIZE.  AT 11 PM EDT...0300 UTC...THE
GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA FROM CHETUMAL TO CANCUN.
 
TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  78.2W AT 19/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  45 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  50 KT WITH GUSTS TO  60 KT.
50 KT....... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT.......125NE 125SE   0SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..140NE 140SE  50SW 140NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 15.7N  78.2W AT 19/0300Z
AT 19/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 15.6N  77.3W
 
FORECAST VALID 19/1200Z 16.3N  81.1W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 50NE   0SE   0SW   0NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE   0SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 17.2N  84.2W
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 18.0N  86.2W
MAX WIND  65 KT...GUSTS  80 KT.
64 KT... 25NE  25SE  10SW  25NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  25SW  50NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  75SW 125NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 15.7N  78.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 21/0000Z 19.3N  87.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  10SW  10NW.
34 KT...125NE 125SE  25SW  25NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 22/0000Z 21.5N  90.5W...OVER WATER AGAIN
MAX WIND  45 KT...GUSTS  55 KT.
34 KT... 50NE  50SE 100SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/0900Z
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
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