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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL   AL0401
2100Z WED AUG 15 2001
 
A TROPICAL STORM OR A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AS EARLY AS TONIGHT.
 
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  47.2W AT 15/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  60 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT  20 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  30 KT WITH GUSTS TO  40 KT.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  47.2W AT 15/2100Z
AT 15/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.5N  46.2W
 
FORECAST VALID 16/0600Z 12.5N  50.0W
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 16/1800Z 13.0N  54.0W
MAX WIND  50 KT...GUSTS  60 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 17/0600Z 13.5N  57.5W
MAX WIND  60 KT...GUSTS  75 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 12.5N  47.2W
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK...USE FOR GUIDANCE ONLY...ERRORS MAY BE LARGE
 
OUTLOOK VALID 17/1800Z 14.0N  61.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 18/1800Z 15.5N  66.5W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 25NE  25SE  25SW  25NW.
34 KT...100NE  50SE  50SW 100NW.
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 16/0300Z
 
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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