HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT NOV 03 2001

OCTAVE CONTINUES TO GENERATE A CLUSTER OF CONVECTION ABOUT 75 NM
NORTH OF THE EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS
SET TO 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF 45 KT FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND 30 KT FROM AFWA.  OCTAVE IS MOVING OVER GRADUALLY
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND THROUGH A VERY HOSTILE
SHEARING ENVIRONMENT.  THUS...THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO WEAKEN
UNTIL IT DISSIPATES IN 24-36 HR.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 295/7...AND THE SHORT-TERM MOTION MAY
BE EVEN MORE TO THE LEFT.  OCTAVE SHOULD CONTINUE TO BE STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF A LARGE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE UNTIL THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/0900Z 18.7N 131.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     03/1800Z 19.1N 132.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     04/0600Z 19.6N 134.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 135.3W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     05/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN