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HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI NOV 02 2001
 
VERTICAL SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE HURRICANE. INFRARED IMAGERY 
SHOWS THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DISPLACED SOUTHWEST OF A SOMEWHAT 
PERSISTANT DEEP CONVECTION.  CIMSS CLOUD-WIND SHEAR ANALYSIS SHOWS A 
30-KNOT ISOTACH OVER OCTAVE.  DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE 77 AND 65 KNOTS 
FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE WIND SPEED IS DECREASED TO 65 KNOTS.  THE 
SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS DISSIPATION IN 48 HOURS AS DOES THE AVIATION 
MODEL.  IN CONTRAST...THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS HOLD ON TO 
NEAR-HURRICANE WINDS FOR A WHILE.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST 
IS CLOSER TO THE SHIPS MODEL.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 345/07.  THE TRACK FORECAST SCENARIO 
IS FOR THE WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION TO BE STEERED BY LOW 
LEVEL FLOW AND CONTINUE A SLOW MOTION WITH A TURN TOWARD THE WEST IN 
NEXT 72 HOURS.  THIS IS THE CONSENSUS OF THE BAM-LOW...GFDL...NOGAPS 
AND UKMET MODELS.  

FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/1500Z 18.1N 129.1W    65 KTS
12HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 129.4W    55 KTS
24HR VT     03/1200Z 20.0N 129.8W    45 KTS
36HR VT     04/0000Z 20.9N 130.3W    35 KTS
48HR VT     04/1200Z 21.3N 131.0W    30 KTS
72HR VT     05/1200Z 21.5N 132.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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