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HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2001
 
HURRICANE OCTAVE HAS RAPIDLY STRENGTHENED DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS 
BASED ON A DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T4.5...77 KT... 
FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN 
INCREASED TO 75 KT.  UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD TO THE NORTH 
...BUT IS BECOMING LESS DISTINCT TO THE SOUTH.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/08.  OCTAVE HAS STAYED ON TRACK 
SO THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK OR 
REASONING.  THE HURRICANE SHOULD CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTHWARD THROUGH 
A WEAKNESS IN THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE BIGGEST QUESTION 
IS WHETHER OR NOT OCTAVE WILL BECOME SHEARED BEFORE IT REACHES A 
WEAK COLD FRONT THAT IS APPROACHING FROM THE NORTH.  IF THE SYSTEM 
REMAINS VERTICALLY DEEP...THEN IT COULD STILL RECURVE A LITTLE TO 
THE NORTHEAST BEFORE IT WEAKENS OVER COLD WATER AND BENEATH 
INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS 
CLOSE TO THE AVN MODEL...WHICH HAS BEEN HANDLING THIS SYSTEM QUITE 
WELL.  THE NOGAPS AND UKMET MODELS APPEAR TO BE OUTLIERS IN TAKING 
THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...WHICH IS NOT UNUSUAL FOR THESE MODELS TO DO 
WITH SMALL COMPACT SYSTEMS LIKE OCTAVE.

THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE PREVIOUS INTENSITY FORECAST OR REASONING.  
OCTAVE HAS LIKELY PEAKED IN INTENSITY...AND COOLER WATER AND 
INCREASING VERTICAL SHEAR AHEAD OF THE CYCLONE SHOULD BRING ABOUT 
STEADY WEAKENING.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL WAS FOLLOWED CLOSELY... 
EXCEPT AT 72 HOURS WHEN IT DISSIPATES OCTAVE.
  
FORECASTER STEWART
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0300Z 16.8N 128.7W    75 KTS
12HR VT     02/1200Z 17.8N 128.9W    70 KTS
24HR VT     03/0000Z 18.9N 129.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     03/1200Z 19.8N 129.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     04/0000Z 20.6N 129.1W    50 KTS
72HR VT     05/0000Z 21.5N 129.5W    35 KTS
 
 
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