HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT THU NOV 01 2001
 
OCTAVE HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE AND T-NUMBERS HAVE INCREASED TO
4.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO
65 KNOTS SO...OCTAVE IS NOW A HURRICANE.  ONLY A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
INTENSITY IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE REACHES COOL WATERS IN A
DAY OR TWO.
 
OCTAVE IS MOVING NORTHWARD OR 350 AT 7 KNOTS AROUND THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THIS GENERAL TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE
UNTIL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS OVER COOL WATERS AND BECOME STEERED
WESTWARD BY THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 3 DAYS.  MODELS CONTINUE TO BE
DIVERGENT AND TRACKS ARE IN GENERAL EITHER WESTWARD OR
NORTHEASTWARD.  ONLY THE GLOBAL AVN BRINGS THE TROPICAL CYCLONE
NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 16.2N 128.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 17.0N 128.8W    70 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 18.0N 129.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 19.0N 129.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 129.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 20.5N 129.5W    35 KTS
 
 
NNNN