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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
7 AM PST THU NOV 01 2001

SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT OCTAVE IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
AND IN FACT AN EYE MAY BE FORMING.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE
INCREASING...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BEING ADJUSTED TO 60
KNOTS.  OCTAVE HAS A CHANCE TO BECOME A HURRICANE BEFORE MOVING
OVER COOL WATERS IN A DAY OR TWO.

OCTAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING SLOWLY NORTHWARD ABOUT...4 TO 5 KNOTS
AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL HIGH.  THIS TRACK
SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL THE SYSTEM WEAKENS AND BECOME STEERED WESTWARD
BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW BEYOND 3 DAYS.  MODELS ARE REALLY DIVERGENT
AND TRACKS ARE IN GENERAL EITHER WESTWARD OR NORTHEASTWARD.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE GLOBAL AVN WHICH BRINGS
OCTAVE SLOWLY NORTHWARD.

FORECASTER AVILA 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/1500Z 15.5N 128.3W    60 KTS
12HR VT     02/0000Z 16.5N 128.7W    65 KTS
24HR VT     02/1200Z 17.5N 129.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     03/0000Z 18.5N 129.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     03/1200Z 19.5N 129.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/1200Z 20.5N 129.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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