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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT THU NOV 01 2001
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE UNCHANGED...55 KNOTS FROM SAB
WASHINGTON AND 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB MIAMI...SO THE INTENSITY IS KEPT
AT 50 KNOTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE SYSTEM REMAINS FAIRLY WELL
ORGANIZED...ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW IS RESTRICTED TO THE SOUTH
AND THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING A BIT ELONGATED TOWARD THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST. THE LATEST SHIPS MODEL OUTPUT CALLS FOR LITTLE
ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING SINCE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY INCREASE...AND SSTS SHOULD BE COOLING. THE OFFICIAL WIND
SPEED FORECAST GOES WITH THIS IDEA...BUT DOES NOT WEAKEN THE STORM
AS FAST AS THE SHIPS GUIDANCE DOES IN THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.
INITIAL MOTION IS ABOUT 305/10. THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY TURN TOWARD THE NORTH IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD...THE WEAKENING
STORM SHOULD BE STEERED MORE BY THE LOWER-TROPOSPHERIC FLOW. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SOMEWHAT TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE...AND FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE MEDIUM LAYER BAM TRACK.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 01/0900Z 15.1N 128.4W 50 KTS
12HR VT 01/1800Z 15.9N 128.9W 55 KTS
24HR VT 02/0600Z 17.0N 129.5W 55 KTS
36HR VT 02/1800Z 17.7N 129.7W 55 KTS
48HR VT 03/0600Z 18.5N 129.8W 50 KTS
72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 130.0W 35 KTS
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