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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
1 PM PST WED OCT 31 2001

WHILE CLOUD TOPS ASSOCIATED WITH OCTAVE HAVE WARMED A LITTLE DURING
THE DAY...THE OVERALL CONVECTIVE CURVATURE CONTINUES TO IMPROVE.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM SAB AND 35 KT FROM
TAFB AND AFWA.  THE MAXIMUM INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 290/11.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/
UPPER LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF OCTAVE...WITH SIGNS OF A
BREAK OR WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  SEVERAL 
GUIDANCE MODELS...INCLUDING THE VARIOUS BAM MODELS...THE GFDL...AND
THE AVN...CONTINUE TO TURN OCTAVE NORTHWARD INTO THE WEAKNESS. 
OTHERS...LIKE THE NOGAPS...FORECAST A CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST
MOTION.  JUST TO CONFUSE THINGS FURTHER...THE NHC91 HAS SWITCHED
FROM A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK TO A NORTHWARD TURN...WHILE THE UKMET
HAS CHANGED FROM A NORTHWARD TURN TO A WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL CONTINUE TO GO WITH THE NORTHWARD TURN
SCENARIO.
 
OCTAVE HAS FAIR TO GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTH SEMICIRCLE...AND
THAT COMBINED WITH GOOD ORGANIZATION INDICATES THAT CONTINUED
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY FOR 24-36 HR.  AFTER THAT TIME...A
COMBINATION OF COLDER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING
VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD CAUSE THE STORM TO WEAKEN.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/2100Z 13.7N 126.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N 127.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/1800Z 15.9N 128.4W    55 KTS
36HR VT     02/0600Z 17.3N 128.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/1800Z 18.5N 129.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/1800Z 20.5N 129.0W    35 KTS
 
 
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