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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2001

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INTENSE 
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SOME EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES.  LATEST 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB 
SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM.  THERE IS MODEST 
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO 
FAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT 
DISSIMILAR TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...SHIPS...OR 
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS 
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.

THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER 
SPEED...12 KNOTS.  THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE 
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO SLOW 
FURTHER AND BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT.  HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK MODEL 
OUTPUT SUGGESTS NOT QUITE AS SHARP A TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IN THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT 
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL 
MODEL...AVN FORECAST.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 12.8N 124.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W    45 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 14.8N 127.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 16.2N 128.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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