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TROPICAL STORM OCTAVE DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT WED OCT 31 2001
THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BECOMING BETTER ORGANIZED...WITH INTENSE
CENTRAL CONVECTION AND SOME EVIDENCE OF BANDING FEATURES. LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KNOTS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB
SUPPORT UPGRADING THE SYSTEM TO A TROPICAL STORM. THERE IS MODEST
EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM...BUT OTHERWISE CONDITIONS APPEAR TO
FAVOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS NOT
DISSIMILAR TO THE LATEST STATISTICAL/DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE...SHIPS...OR
THAT FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. LATE IN THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS
SHOULD INDUCE WEAKENING.
THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION IS WEST-NORTHWEST AT A SLIGHTLY SLOWER
SPEED...12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN...AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE THE MOTION TO SLOW
FURTHER AND BEND TOWARD THE RIGHT. HOWEVER THE LATEST TRACK MODEL
OUTPUT SUGGESTS NOT QUITE AS SHARP A TURN TO THE RIGHT AS IN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE CURRENT NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ON THE RIGHT
SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...AND CLOSE TO THE NCEP GLOBAL
MODEL...AVN FORECAST.
FORECASTER PASCH
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 31/0900Z 12.8N 124.5W 40 KTS
12HR VT 31/1800Z 13.5N 126.0W 45 KTS
24HR VT 01/0600Z 14.8N 127.2W 50 KTS
36HR VT 01/1800Z 16.2N 128.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 02/0600Z 17.5N 128.0W 50 KTS
72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 128.0W 40 KTS
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