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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT TUE OCT 23 2001
 
UNDER STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR...THE LOW-LEVEL CLOUD CENTER IS EXPOSED
TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THIS IS SEEN ON
INFRARED...SSMI...AND TRMM IMAGERY.  AND THE DEEP CONVECTION IS 
QUICKLY DISAPPEARING.  SO NARDA IS ON HER WAY OUT.  00Z DVORAK 
ESTIMATES ARE 55 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB.  THE INITIAL WIND SPEED 
FOR 09Z IS DECREASED TO 50 KNOTS AND DISSIPATION IS FORECAST IN A 
DAY OR SO.  

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 275/11 BASED ON THE PAST 12 HOURS OF 
MOTION AND THE SHORTER TERM MOTION IS 270 DEGREES.  SINCE NARDA IS 
BECOMING A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS...THE MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE 
DUE WESTWARD UNDER LOW-LEVEL STEERING.  HOWEVER ALL OF THE GUIDANCE 
MODELS SHOW SOME NORTHWARD COMPONENT OF MOTION...SO THE FORECAST 
TRACK IS A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST BUT IS TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS TO THE LEFT OF ALL OF THE GUIDANCE. 
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 16.2N 137.1W    50 KTS
12HR VT     23/1800Z 16.4N 138.8W    40 KTS
24HR VT     24/0600Z 16.9N 141.4W    30 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     24/1800Z 17.3N 143.9W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     25/0600Z 17.8N 146.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/0600Z 18.5N 150.0W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
  
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