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HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT MON OCT 22 2001

THE SOUTHWESTERLY SHEARING CONTINUES...BUT THE CENTER IS NOT YET 
EXPOSED FROM THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION.  HOWEVER...IT MAY 
BECOME SO AT ANY TIME.  THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 65 KNOTS...WHICH 
IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK T-NUMBERS AND CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
FROM TAFB AND SAB.  BASED ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND GLOBAL MODEL 
OUTPUT...THE SHEAR IS LIKELY TO CONTINUE...AND PROBABLY INCREASE 
WITH TIME.  THEREFORE NARDA IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE WEAKENING.  IN 
FACT...THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE SUCH AS THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES AN 
EVEN FASTER RATE OF WEAKENING THAN IS SHOWN HERE.  

THE TRACK CONTINUES ALONG ABOUT 295/11.  DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE IS IN 
REASONABLE AGREEMENT ON THE CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.  THIS OFFICIAL TRACK 
FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE AND EXTENSION OF THE PREVIOUS 
ONE...AND ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE SUITE.

FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/2100Z 16.2N 135.0W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/0600Z 16.8N 136.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     23/1800Z 17.5N 139.0W    55 KTS
36HR VT     24/0600Z 18.3N 141.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     24/1800Z 19.0N 144.0W    35 KTS
72HR VT     25/1800Z 20.0N 147.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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