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HURRICANE NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT MON OCT 22 2001

SATELLITE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT NARDA IS BEING SHEARED BY UPPER- 
LEVEL WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW...AS THE CIRRUS CANOPY OF THE TROPICAL 
CYCLONE HAS A RATHER SHARP EDGE OVER THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT.  IT 
APPEARS THAT THE HURRICANES MID-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER IS 
DISPLACED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE CENTER.  THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY 
NUMBERS...WHICH MAINTAIN THE STRENGTH OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FOR A 
WHILE AFTER THE INITIAL SIGNS OF WEAKENING ARE EVIDENT...AND THE 
LATEST DATA T NUMBERS.  WITH NARDA LIKELY TO CONTINUE MOVING THROUGH 
AN ENVIRONMENT OF STRONG...AND INCREASING...VERTICAL SHEAR... 
WEAKENING IS FORECAST.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST SHOWS THE 
SYSTEM DOWN TO DEPRESSION STATUS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD... HOWEVER 
THE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT NARDA MAY DISSIPATE BY THAT 
TIME.

SINCE THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS NOW ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR THE 
SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...THE INITIAL MOTION AND 
FORECAST TRACK HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE 
PREVIOUS ONES.   A MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTH OF NARDA 
SHOULD STEER THE SYSTEM IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTERLY DIRECTION 
FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A LITTLE 
NORTH OF THE GLOBAL MODEL CONSENSUS...BUT SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE 
LATEST GFDL RUN.
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 15.7N 134.0W    70 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 16.4N 135.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 17.0N 137.9W    60 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 17.5N 140.0W    50 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 18.0N 142.0W    40 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 19.0N 145.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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