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TROPICAL STORM NARDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SUN OCT 21 2001
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/12. THE AVIATION MODEL MAINTAINS
A RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE STORM THROUGH 72 HOURS AND THE
GFDL...UKMET AND NOGAPS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ABOUT A CONTINUED
WEST-NORTHWEST MOTION.
A COLD CDO FEATURE PERSISTS AND DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 45 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS
INCREASED TO 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SHOW MODEST
STRENGTHENING FOR ANOTHER 24 HOURS OR SO AFTER WHICH UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES AND THEIR ASSOCIATED VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
WEAKEN THE STORM.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 21/0900Z 12.6N 129.0W 45 KTS
12HR VT 21/1800Z 13.5N 130.7W 55 KTS
24HR VT 22/0600Z 14.5N 133.0W 60 KTS
36HR VT 22/1800Z 15.2N 135.3W 55 KTS
48HR VT 23/0600Z 16.0N 137.6W 50 KTS
72HR VT 24/0600Z 17.6N 142.3W 35 KTS
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