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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIXTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SAT OCT 20 2001

AT 1200 UTC BOTH TAFB AND SAB GAVE SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
30 KTS FOR THIS SYSTEM.  DEEP CONVECTION IS BANDING AROUND AN
ESTIMATED CENTER.  THE SYSTEMS ORGANIZATION HAS BEEN STEADLY
IMPROVING OVER THE PAST 24 HOUR WITH GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW ON THE
WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE AND FAIR ON THE EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE.
CERTAINLY...THE UPPER OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT IS ADEQUATE FOR
DEVELOPMENT WITH SST VALUES IN THE 27C TO 28C TEMPERATURE RANGE.
BASED UPON THIS...THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION...NUMBER SIXTEEN FOR THE EASTERN PACIFIC BASIN THIS YEAR.

INITIAL MOTION IS 290/16.  THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING ON THE SOUTH 
SIDE OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH.  GLOBAL MODEL 
GUIDANCE MAINTAINS THIS GENERAL MOTION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST 
PERIOD.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY SOUTH OF THE GFDL BUT 
REASONABLY CLOSE TO THE AVN.

SHIPS AND THE GFDL GRADUALLY INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM TO AROUND 50 TO 55 
KTS IN ABOUT 36 HOURS BUT BEGIN WEAKENING THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 
HOURS...WHEN UPPER-LEVEL WESTERLIES ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN SHEARING 
THE SYSTEM.  SST VALUES WILL STILL BE IN THE 26C TO 27C RANGE AT 72 
HOURS WITH THIS FORECAST TRACK...SO THE SYSTEM IS WEAKENED SLOWLY.  

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/1500Z 11.3N 125.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     21/0000Z 12.0N 128.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     21/1200Z 13.3N 130.9W    45 KTS
36HR VT     22/0000Z 14.1N 133.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     22/1200Z 14.8N 136.4W    50 KTS
72HR VT     23/1200Z 16.0N 142.0W    40 KTS
 
 
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