[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
 
MANUEL IS ESSENTIALLY A LARGE SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH
ONLY AN ISOLATED AREA OF CONVECTION ABOUT 90 NM FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CENTER. MANUEL IS MOVING OVER PROGRESSIVELY COOLER WATERS AND THIS
SHOULD INHIBIT ANY FURTHER CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY AND ACCELERATE THE 
OVERALL DISSIPATION OF THE SYSTEM. THUS THIS WILL BE THE LAST 
ADVISORY ISSUED ON THIS SYSTEM. 
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/7 KT...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. THE NHC TRACK MODELS INDICATE A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-
NORTHWEST MOTION...THE ONLY EXCEPTIONS BEING THE NOGAPS AND UKMET 
MODELS WHICH ARE MORE WEST-NORTHWEST. SINCE MANUEL IS FOR
THE MOST PART A SHALLOW CIRCULATION...THE FORECAST TRACK IS VERY
CLOSE TO THE SHALLOW LAYER BAM AND CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS TRACK WITH 
STEERING DOMINATED BY THE LOW LEVEL FLOW.
 
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN THE NEXT 12 
HOURS AS IT TRACKS OVER COOLER WATERS AND INTO AN AREA OF 
STRONGER SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE SHIPS 
INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION IN 12 HOURS.

ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW ASSOCIATED WITH MANUEL CAN 
BE FOUND IN THE HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE TROPICAL ANALYSIS 
AND FORECAST BRANCH UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIAHSFEP2 OR WMO HEADER 
FZPN03 KNHC. 

FORECASTER BEVEN/COBB
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     18/0300Z 22.2N 122.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     18/1200Z 23.1N 122.4W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     19/0000Z 24.5N 123.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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