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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
 
THE BURST OF CONVECTION THAT WAS NEAR THE CENTER OF MANUEL THIS
MORNING HAS SINCE DISSIPATED.  MANUEL NOW CONSISTS OF A LARGE
SWIRL OF LOW/MID LEVEL CLOUDS WITH NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB CONTINUE TO
DECREASE.  THEREFORE...MANUEL HAS BEEN DROWNGRADED TO A 30 KT
DEPRESSION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 335/9 KT. A NORTHWEST TO NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY 
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN LINE WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL 
CONSENSUS...EXCPET THAT THE TRACK HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE 
RIGHT TO THE RIGHT. AS MANUEL CONTINUES TO WEAKEN...THE MID-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION MAY MOVE MORE NORTHWARD WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER 
CONTINUES TOWARD THE NORTHWEST UNTIL DISSIPATION OCCURS.
 
MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER 
SSTS AND INTO AN AREA OF INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THIS IS 
SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES DISSIPATION 
BY 24 HOURS. 
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/2100Z 21.8N 121.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0600Z 23.0N 122.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
24HR VT     18/1800Z 24.0N 122.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
36HR VT     19/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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