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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  28
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT WED OCT 17 2001
 
INTERMITTENT SMALL BURSTS OF CONVECTION CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NEAR AND 
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF MANUEL.  SATELLITE 
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 30 KT AND 35 KT... 
RESPECTIVELY.  THEREFORE...THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS DECREASED 
TO 35 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 315/9 KT. THE COMBINED EFFECTS OF UPPER-LEVEL
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST OF 
MANUEL HAS RESULTED IN NORTHWESTERLY MOTION OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. 
THIS GENERAL FLOW PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE UNTIL MANUEL 
DISSIPATES IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THIS TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE 
UKMET-GFDL-AVN-NOGAPS MODEL CONSENSUS...AND IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT 
OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
DESPITE THE DEVELOPMENT OF INTERMITTENT DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE 
CENTER...INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR...COOLER 
SSTS...AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF COLD-AIR STRATOCUMULUS CLOUDS SHOULD 
RESULT IN CONTINUED WEAKENING THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS 
IS SIMILAR TO THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL...WHICH INDICATES 
DISSIPATION BY 36 HOURS.
 
FORECASTER STEWART/BROWN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 20.8N 121.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 21.7N 122.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 22.8N 123.4W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     19/0000Z 23.6N 124.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
48HR VT     19/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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