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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT MON OCT 15 2001
SATELLITE IMAGERY THIS EVENING INDICATES MANUEL IS BECOMING BETTER
ORGANIZED WITH A SMALL CDO-LIKE FEATURE NEAR THE CENTER....ALTHOUGH
THE CIRCULATION STILL APPEARS TO BE ELONGATED SW TO NE. DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 45 KT...WHICH IS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE VERTICAL SHEAR HAS DECREASED OVER
MANUEL AND THE OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED...THEREFORE SOME ADDITIONAL
STRENGTHENING IS LIKELY. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS IN LINE
WITH THE SHIPS GUIDANCE AND MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO PEAK IN 24 TO 36
HOURS. BEYOND THAT TIME...MANUEL IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER COOLER
WATERS AND ENCOUNTER INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 315/07. THE TRACK FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY IS BASICALLY UNCHANGED IN THAT THE 500 MB ANTICYCLONE
NEAR BAJA IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THIS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A DIGGING TROUGH ALONG 130W SHOULD
INDUCE A MORE NORTHWARD MOTION LATER IN THE PERIOD. THERE IS
REMARKABLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE MODELS THROUGH 36
HOURS. AFTER THAT TIME THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR SOLUTIONS WITH
THE NOGAPS THE LEFTMOST OUTLIER...WHILE THE AVN AND BAMS ACCELERATE
MANUEL TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
JUST SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND A BIT FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.
THIS IS SIMILAR TO THE GUNA ENSEMBLE OF THE GFDL...UKMET...NOGAPS
AND AVN TRACKS.
FORECASTER PASCH/COBB
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/0300Z 17.3N 116.2W 45 KTS
12HR VT 16/1200Z 18.0N 117.2W 50 KTS
24HR VT 17/0000Z 18.9N 118.6W 55 KTS
36HR VT 17/1200Z 20.0N 120.0W 55 KTS
48HR VT 18/0000Z 21.3N 121.3W 50 KTS
72HR VT 19/0000Z 24.0N 123.0W 40 KTS
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