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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001

LATEST IMAGERY SHOWS A WARMING OF THE CLOUD TOPS...WHICH IS PROBABLY 
A DIURNAL FLUCTUATION.  DVORAK T-NUMBERS ARE 2.5...WHICH CORRESPONDS 
TO 35 KNOTS.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO BE INVOLVED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL 
LOW JUST TO ITS WEST.  THERE IS A DRY SLOT WRAPPING AROUND THE 
SOUTHWESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE AND SOUTHWESTERLY 
SHEAR OVER THE AREA.  EVEN THOUGH THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE 
UPPER LOW MOVING TO THE SOUTHWEST OF MANUEL DURING THE NEXT DAY OR 
TWO...IT APPEARS THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL STILL HAVE SOME 
SOUTHERLY SHEAR AFFECTING IT LATER IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  ALSO 
NEAR THE END OF THE PERIOD...COOLING SSTS SHOULD BE AN INHIBITING 
FACTOR.  WITH THE QUESTIONABLE FUTURE ENVIRONMENT AND THE CURRENT 
NOT-SO-IMPRESSIVE APPEARENCE OF MANUEL...I HAVE FURTHER REDUCED THE 
OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST.  THIS IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THE 
LATEST SHIPS GUIDANCE AS WELL.

THE CENTER IS DIFFICULT TO FIND...BUT LATEST FIXES SUGGEST LITTLE 
OVERALL MOVEMENT.  IT APPEARS THAT MANUEL IS SITUATED IN A BROAD 
MID-LEVEL TROUGH BETWEEN TWO ANTICYCLONES.  AS NOTED IN THE EARLIER 
DISCUSSION...THE NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SHOWS THE BUILDING OF A 500 MB 
HIGH TO THE NORTHEAST OF MANUEL OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.  THEREFORE 
THE FORECAST CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD MOTION TO BEGIN SOON.  THIS 
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST AND TO THE MODEL 
CONSENSUS. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 14.4N 113.9W    35 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 15.0N 114.6W    35 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 16.0N 115.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 17.0N 117.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 18.5N 118.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 21.0N 121.0W    45 KTS
 
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