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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT SUN OCT 14 2001
 
IT APPEARS THAT THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER MAY BE PARTLY
EXPOSED WITH THE FIRST VISIBLE SATELLITE PHOTOS.  THIS IS CONSISTENT
WITH THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR DISPLACING THE CONVECTION TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION.  AN INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS
MAINTAINED BASED ON DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KT...
T3.5...FROM TAFB AND 35 KT...T2.5...FROM SAB...AND INCREASING
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/06.  THE SYNOPTIC REASONING
REMAINS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH TO
THE NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS FORECAST TO GRADUALLY MOVE EAST OF THE
SYSTEM BY 24 HOURS.  HOWEVER...AT THE PRESENT TIME THE TROUGH IS
CONTINUING TO DIG SOUTHWARD JUST WEST OF THE CYCLONE WHICH SHOULD
HELP LIFT IT SLOWLY POLEWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  AFTER
THAT...THE DEEP EASTERLY FLOW ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FLOW AND HELP
MOVE MANUEL IN A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWEST
DIRECTION.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOR
THE FIRST 36 HOURS BUT TO THE RIGHT FOR THE REMAINING FORECAST
PERIODS...AND CLOSE TO THE AVN-NOGAPS-UKMET-GFDL MODEL CONSENSUS.

THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY JUST NORTHWEST OF MANUEL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE DIGGING SOUTHWARD FOR THE NEXT 12 HOURS OR SO.
WHILE THIS PATTERN IS INCREASING THE UPPER-DIFULENCE ACROSS THE
CYCLONE AND AIDING THE DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION...IT IS ALSO
INCREASING THE NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ON THE SYSTEM.  ONCE THE SHEAR
DECREASES...MANUEL IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY STRENGTHEN AND THE SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL ACTUALLY BRINGS MANUEL BACK TO HURRICANE STRENGTH IN
36 HOURS AS THE VERTICAL SHEAR DECREASES TO ONLY 5 TO 10 KT.
 
 
FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/1500Z 14.1N 114.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/0000Z 14.5N 115.2W    45 KTS
24HR VT     15/1200Z 15.1N 116.3W    50 KTS
36HR VT     16/0000Z 15.7N 117.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     16/1200Z 16.3N 118.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     17/1200Z 18.0N 121.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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