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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
IT IS MOST DIFFICULT TO LOCATE A CENTER ON VIS OR IR AND THERE IS NO
RECENT HELP FROM MICROWAVE.  USING A CENTER OF THE OVERALL LAST
LIGHT VIS PATTERN GIVES A MOTION OF 225/6 AT 00Z.  MUCH OF THE
GUIDANCE SHOWS CONTINUED SLOW FORWARD SPEED AND A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST AS THE RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST IS ERODED FROM AN
APPROACHING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 AND 55 KNOTS FROM SAB AND THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED IS INCREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  HOWEVER THE
CONVECTION LOOKS RAGGED AND THERE IS EVIDENCE OF STRONG NORTHERLY
SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE STORM.  THIS SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
ABATE BY THE AVIATION MODEL ALLOWING FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION IN 24
HOURS OR SO.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     14/0300Z 13.4N 113.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     14/1200Z 13.2N 114.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     15/0000Z 13.5N 114.7W    45 KTS
36HR VT     15/1200Z 14.1N 115.4W    50 KTS
48HR VT     16/0000Z 15.0N 116.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     17/0000Z 16.0N 118.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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