HOME	ARCHIVES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
MANUEL CONTINUES GENERATING BURSTS OF VERY DEEP CONVECTION NEAR AND
TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM
TAFB...SAB...ARE AT 40 AND 30 KTS RESPECTIVELY.  THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 35 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY...WHICH BRINGS 
MANUAL BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 260/02...A PROVERBIAL CRAWL.  THE MODELS 
SEEM TO BE DOING WELL WITH THIS DECELERATION.  MANUEL CONTINUES TO 
BE SLOWLY STEERED BY LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND
NORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...AS LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO
DEVELOP WEST OF 135W.  THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL
WESTWARD MOTION FOR 24-48 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE 
PREVIOUS.
 
MANUEL REMAINS IN A HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT...BUT APPEARS TO BE ABLE
TO OVERCOME THE SHEAR FROM THE NORTHWEST.  THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS
SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR.  DESPITE THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL
MODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.  SINCE THE SYSTEM HAS MANAGED 
TO STRENGTHEN BACK TO A TROPICAL STORM...THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL
FOLLOW THE SHIPS AND GFDL GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/2100Z 14.2N 113.5W    35 KTS
12HR VT     14/0600Z 14.0N 113.8W    35 KTS
24HR VT     14/1800Z 14.0N 114.2W    40 KTS
36HR VT     15/0600Z 13.9N 114.7W    50 KTS
48HR VT     15/1800Z 13.9N 115.4W    50 KTS
72HR VT     16/1800Z 15.0N 117.0W    50 KTS
 
 
NNNN