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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 AM PDT SAT OCT 13 2001
 
MANUEL IS GENERATING BURSTS OF CONVECTION NEAR AND TO THE SOUTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  WHILE THE BURSTS ARE POORLY ORGANIZED WITH LITTLE
EVIDENCE OF BANDING...THEY ARE ENOUGH TO KEEP SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA AT 30 KT.  THAT WILL BE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY FOR THIS ADVISORY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 260/10.  MANUEL IS CURRENTLY STEERED BY
LOW/MID LEVEL RIDGING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST.  THE RIDGE IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN SOME BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...AS
LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST A STRONG TROUGH TO DEVELOP WEST OF 135W.
THIS SCENARIO SHOULD ALLOW MANUEL A GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION FOR
24-36 HR FOLLOWED BY A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  THE TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT SHIFTED WEST OF...THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THIS FORECAST IS TO THE RIGHT OF
MOST OF THE GUIDANCE AND MAY NEED TO BE ADJUSTED MORE TO THE WEST IN
LATER PACKAGES.

MANUEL IS IN A RATHER HOSTILE ENVIRONMENT.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS NORTHWESTERLY UPPER LEVEL FLOW OVER THE CYCLONE...AND THE
IMAGERY AND LARGE-SCALE MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
WILL DEVELOP NEAR OR OVER THE CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 36 HR. DESPITE
THIS...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS ARE CALLING FOR STRENGTHENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST WILL GO AGAINST THIS GUIDANCE AND CALL FOR
CONTINUED SLOW WEAKENING THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECASTER BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0900Z 14.7N 112.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/1800Z 14.5N 113.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N 114.9W    25 KTS
36HR VT     14/1800Z 14.9N 116.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     15/0600Z 15.5N 117.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     16/0600Z 16.5N 118.5W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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