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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001
 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION IS EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE WEAKENING
CONVECTION.  TAFB AND SAB DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.0 INDICATING
A 30 KT DEPRESSION.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS HELD AT 30
KNOTS INITIALLY WITH A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND THEREAFTER. THE
SYSTEM COULD BE A REMNANT LOW BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.  THIS IS
BASED ON THE AVIATION MODEL...HOWEVER...THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS
SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM COULD LINGER AS A DEPRESSION OR EVEN A STORM
A LITTLE LONGER.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 255/12.  THE GFDL...UKMET...AND AVIATION  
MODELS ALL SUGGEST WEAK STEERING FLOW.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST 
IS VERY SIMILIAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     13/0300Z 14.8N 112.1W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/1200Z 14.8N 113.0W    25 KTS
24HR VT     14/0000Z 14.7N 114.0W    25 KTS
36HR VT     14/1200Z 14.8N 115.0W    20 KTS
48HR VT     15/0000Z 15.5N 116.0W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
72HR VT     16/0000Z 17.0N 117.8W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
 
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