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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001
THERE IS MINIMAL AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM.
A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS. TAFB...
SAB AND AFGWC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.5...2.0 AND 2.0. MANUEL
IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION. THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE THE
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER IT BY 48 HOURS AND
DISSIPATION. THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS
THROUGH 72 HOURS RATHER THAN CALLING FOR DISSIPATION.
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/12. THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE VERY
SLOW SUGGESTING THAT MANUEL IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST. THE AVIATION MODEL IS
ALSO VERY SLOW. OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY THE NOGAPS KEEPS A
WESTWARD MOTION AT 10 KNOTS OR SO. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWED
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THIS
GUIDANCE.
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/MOLLEDA
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 12/2100Z 14.9N 111.0W 30 KTS
12HR VT 13/0600Z 14.6N 112.3W 30 KTS
24HR VT 13/1800Z 14.4N 113.4W 30 KTS
36HR VT 14/0600Z 14.5N 114.4W 30 KTS
48HR VT 14/1800Z 14.8N 115.3W 30 KTS
72HR VT 15/1800Z 16.0N 116.5W 30 KTS
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