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TROPICAL DEPRESSION MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001
 
THERE IS MINIMAL AND POORLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM.   
A 13Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWED NO WIND SPEEDS ABOVE 30 KNOTS.  TAFB...
SAB AND AFGWC DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE 2.5...2.0 AND 2.0.  MANUEL 
IS DOWNGRADED TO A DEPRESSION.  THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS SUGGEST 
THAT IT COULD RESTRENGTHEN SOME DURING THE NEXT 72 HOURS WHILE THE 
AVIATION MODEL SHOWS STRONG NORTHERLY WINDS OVER IT BY 48 HOURS AND 
DISSIPATION.  THE OFFICIAL WIND SPEED FORECAST IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS 
THROUGH 72 HOURS RATHER THAN CALLING FOR DISSIPATION.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 250/12.  THE GFDL AND UKMET MODELS ARE VERY
SLOW SUGGESTING THAT MANUEL IS CAUGHT IN A WEAK STEERING FLOW
BETWEEN HIGHS TO THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHEAST.  THE AVIATION MODEL IS
ALSO VERY SLOW.  OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ONLY THE NOGAPS KEEPS A 
WESTWARD MOTION AT 10 KNOTS OR SO.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SLOWED 
CONSIDERABLY FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY IN RESPONSE TO THIS 
GUIDANCE.
 
FORECASTER LAWRENCE/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/2100Z 14.9N 111.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     13/0600Z 14.6N 112.3W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/1800Z 14.4N 113.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     14/0600Z 14.5N 114.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     14/1800Z 14.8N 115.3W    30 KTS
72HR VT     15/1800Z 16.0N 116.5W    30 KTS
  
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