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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   8
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT FRI OCT 12 2001
 
THE CONVECTION AROUND MANUEL HAS CONTINUED TO WEAKEN THIS MORNING... 
WITH LIMITED AND POORLY-ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION ABOUT 100 NM SOUTH 
OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER POSITION.  THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DIFFICULT 
TO LOCATE AND COULD BE A LITTLE SOUTH OF OUR ADVISORY POSITION.  
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY LATER TODAY SHOULD HELP IN DETERMINING THE 
ACTUAL LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM.  DVORAK DATA-T NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND 
SAB ARE DOWN TO 30 KNOTS...25 KNOTS FROM KGWC...AND THE INITIAL 
INTENSITY IS DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  
 
MANUEL HAS SLOWED DOWN SOME...WITH THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATED AT 
270/8.  THE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE CAUGHT IN A WEAKNESS BETWEEN AN 
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER MEXICO AND ANOTHER NEAR 120W.  NHC HURRICANE 
GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO BE SOMEWHAT DIVERSE.  THE GFDL AND GFDN MODELS 
BOTH FORECAST A SOUTHWEST MOTION FOR 12-24 HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A 
EASTWARD LOOP AND A TURN TO THE NORTH BEYOND 48 HOURS.  THE UKMET 
MODEL ALSO TAKES THE STORM TO THE SOUTHWEST FOR ABOUT A DAY OR 
TWO...WITH A TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST.  
LARGE-SCALE MODELS INDICATE THE RIDGE TO THE WEST ACTING AS A 
POSSIBLE BLOCKING FEATURE PREVENTING THE STORM FROM MOVING TOO MUCH 
TO THE WEST.  THE REMAINDER OF THE NHC GUIDANCE CALLS FOR A GENERAL 
WESTWARD MOTION WITH A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BEYOND 48 HOURS.  
BASED ON THIS POTENTIAL WEAK STEERING FLOW...THE OFFICIAL TRACK WILL 
BE A LITTLE SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE.

LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS FORECAST THROUGH 36 HOURS.  GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE INDICATING INCREASING WESTERLY UPPER-LEVEL FLOW OVER 
MANUEL OVER THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THEREFORE...NO STRENGTHEING IS 
ANTICIPATED.  IN FACT...GIVEN THE CURRENT POOR APPARENT ORGANIZATION 
OF MANUEL...EVEN THIS FORECAST MAY BE GENEROUS.
 
FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/1500Z 15.9N 109.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     13/0000Z 15.9N 110.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     13/1200Z 16.0N 111.6W    40 KTS
36HR VT     14/0000Z 16.0N 112.8W    40 KTS
48HR VT     14/1200Z 16.0N 114.5W    35 KTS
72HR VT     15/1200Z 16.5N 117.5W    30 KTS
 
 
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