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TROPICAL STORM MANUEL DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 AM PDT THU OCT 11 2001
 
THE CENTER OF MANUEL HAS BEEN DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY...INCLUDING FIRST LIGHT VISIBLES...BUT THE BEST
ESTIMATE OF ITS LOCATION IS NEAR THE SOUTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE COLD
CLOUD TOPS.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 35 KNOTS FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND WITH THE RATHER AMORPHOUS APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE KEPT AT 35 KNOTS.

THE INITIAL FORWARD SPEED IS 14 KNOTS...A SLIGHT INCREASE FROM THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A SLIGHT WEAKENING OF THE
RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF MANUEL IN A DAY OR TWO AS A MID-LEVEL SHORT
WAVE MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST U.S.  THE NHC HURRICANE MODEL
GUIDANCE RESPONDS TO THE WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BY SPLITTING INTO
TWO MAIN SOLUTIONS.  THE GFDL AND NAVY-GFDL SOLUTIONS RECURVE MANUEL
TO THE NORTHEAST BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WHILE THE REST
OF THE GUIDANCE IS MORE WESTWARD.  MODELS SUGGEST THAT AN
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BUILD NORTH OF THE SYSTEM AFTER 48 HOURS...
WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN A MORE WESTWARD MOTION BY THAT TIME.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH AND A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE...AND ROUGHLY IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

ALTHOUGH THERE WAS EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CYCLONE YESTERDAY...
CURRENT IMAGERY IS NOT SO CLEAR...WITH A FAIRLY HARD EDGE TO THE
UPPER CLOUDS ON THE WEST SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST
THAT MANUEL SHOULD BE IN AN AREA OF LIGHT SHEAR IN ABOUT 24 TO 36
HOURS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE INDICATES A PEAK INTENSITY OF 54 KNOTS IN
36 HOURS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST WILL SHOW SOME SLOW
STRENGTHENING.  BEYOND 36 HOURS...THE AVN SUGGESTS AN INCREASE IN
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS OVER MANUEL.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
WILL INDICATE SOME WEAKENING AFTER THE 48-HOUR PERIOD...IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/1500Z 15.4N 105.4W    35 KTS
12HR VT     12/0000Z 15.9N 107.3W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1200Z 16.4N 109.2W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0000Z 16.9N 110.6W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/1200Z 17.5N 111.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     14/1200Z 18.0N 114.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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