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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
 
THE EASTERLY SHEAR HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY AND THE CONVECTION IS 
CURRENTLY OVER THE E SEMICIRCLE.  OVERALL...THE CLOUD STRUCTURE HAS 
NOT CHANGED MUCH THE PAST 6 HOURS WITH SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES 
35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB.  THE EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST 
TO WEAKEN FURTHER...THUS GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED AFTER 12 
HOURS.

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A NARROW RIDGE NORTH OF THE CYCLONE.  THIS 
RIDGE WILL LIKELY BE TEMPORARILY ERODED BY THE PASSAGE OF AN UPPER 
TROUGH AND THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK 
IN ABOUT 12 TO 24 HOURS.  THEREAFTER...THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO 
REBUILD FORCING THE TROPICAL CYCLONE ON A MORE WESTERLY TRACK AS 
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST AND MOST OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE.

FORECASTER AVILA/NELSON
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/0300Z 14.6N 102.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/1200Z 15.0N 104.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     12/0000Z 15.5N 106.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/1200Z 16.0N 108.5W    40 KTS
48HR VT     13/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     14/0000Z 16.5N 114.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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