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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIFTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 10 2001
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER SOUTH OF ACAPULCO HAS DEVELOPED A
CIRCULATION AND ORGANIZED CONVECTION...ALTHOUGH BOTH LOOK SOMEWHAT
RAGGED AND LESS THAN IMPRESSIVE.  SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES
ARE 35 KT FROM SAB AND 30 KT FROM TAFB AND AFWA.  ADVISORIES ARE
THUS INITIATED ON A 30 KT DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/14.  LIMITED GUIDANCE IS AVAILABLE TODAY
DUE TO COMPUTER MAINTENANCE AT NCEP.  WATER VAPOR IMAGERY CURRENTLY
SHOWS RIDGING NORTH OF THE CYCLONE WITH A LARGE DEEP LAYER TROUGH
NORTH OF THE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THE NOGAPS
INDICATES THAT THE RIDGE SHOULD GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS A NEW STRONG
SHORTWAVE DROPS INTO THE U.S. TROUGH.  HOWEVER...THE MODEL DOES NOT
FORECAST THE TROUGH TO DIG FAR ENOUGH SOUTH TO RECURVE THE CYCLONE.
THIS SCENARIO SUPPORTS AN INITIAL WESTWARD TRACK...FOLLOWED BY A
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TURN AS THE RIDGE WEAKENS.  THE RIDGE STARTS
TO STRENGTHEN AGAIN BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...SO THE
72 HR POINT WILL SHOW A WESTWARD TURN.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN AN EASTERLY SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...WHICH
SHOULD SLOW DEVELOPMENT EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THE NOGAPS
FORECASTS THAT THE ENVIRONMENT SHOULD BECOME MORE FAVORABLE AFTER
12-24 HR...SO THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL STRENGTHENING
AFTER 12 HR.  IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE 12Z GFDL CALLS FOR NO
STRENGTHENING...A SURPRISING LACK OF DEVELOPMENT IN LIGHT OF THE
GENERALLY FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL WINDS IN THE MODEL.

AFTER EXTENSIVE POST-ANALYSIS...AND NO SMALL AMOUNT OF DEBATE...IT
WAS DECIDED THAT THIS SYSTEM WAS NOT THE CONTINUATION OF ATLANTIC
HURRICANE IRIS.  SATELLITE PICTURES AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM
YESTERDAY SUGGEST THAT THIS CENTER...WHILE PART OF THE OVERALL
WEATHER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH IRIS...WAS FORMING OVER THE PACIFIC
BEFORE THE CENTER OF IRIS LOST ITS IDENTITY OVER EASTERN MEXICO. 
THUS...THE SYSTEM IS CALLED TD FIFTEEN-E INSTEAD OF TD IRIS.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     10/2100Z 14.0N 101.3W    30 KTS
12HR VT     11/0600Z 14.0N 103.2W    30 KTS
24HR VT     11/1800Z 14.5N 105.4W    35 KTS
36HR VT     12/0600Z 15.0N 107.2W    40 KTS
48HR VT     12/1800Z 15.5N 109.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     13/1800Z 16.0N 112.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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