[NCEP Logo] HOME ARCHIVES FORECASTS IMAGERY ABOUT TPC RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
8 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001

DEEP CONVECTION IN THE SYSTEM HAS MARKEDLY DECREASED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS.  VISIBLE IMAGERY STILL REVEALS A POORLY-DEFINED
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER...HOWEVER...THIS CIRCULATION IS BEING
DISRUPTED BY OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES GENERATED BY THE DISSIPATING
CONVECTION.  THE LACK OF CONVECTION INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS
RAPIDLY WEAKENING.  THE DEPRESSION IS LABORING UNDER STRONG
SUBSIDENCE...AS WELL AS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY WIND SHEAR FROM AN
UPPER LOW TO ITS SOUTHWEST AND A LARGE DEEP-LAYER ANTICYCLONE TO ITS
NORTH..

THE SYSTEM NO LONGER HAS ENOUGH CONVECTION TO QUALIFY AS A TROPICAL 
CYCLONE.  ISOLATED CONVECTIVE TOWERS ARE STILL PRESENT NEAR THE 
CIRCULATION CENTER IN VISIBLE IMAGERY... AND INTERMITTENT BURSTS OF 
MOSTLY WEAK CONVECTION ARE POSSIBLE NEAR THE CENTER DURING THE NEXT 
DAY OR TWO.

FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THE REMNANT LOW PLEASE SEE HIGH SEAS
FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE...UNDER AWIPS
HEADER NFDHSFEPI AND WMO HEADER FZPN02 KWBC.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN/KNABB/AGUIRRE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 14.6N 123.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
12HR VT     04/1200Z 14.7N 124.1W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
24HR VT     05/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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