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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOURTEEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM PDT WED OCT 03 2001
 
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION...IF IT EXISTS...HAS BECOME
DIFFICULT TO LOCATE ON SATELLITE IMAGERY.  THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE
POORLY-DEFINED CENTER IS ON THE EASTERN EDGE OF A RAPIDLY
DISSIPATING CLUSTER OF CONVECTION.  WATER VAPOR IMAGES IMPLY THAT
THE CYCLONE IS EMBEDDED IN A LARGE AREA OF SUBSIDENCE ASSOCIATED
WITH A DEEP-LAYERED RIDGE WHICH COVERS MUCH OF THE EASTERN PACIFIC
OCEAN WEST OF 120W.  FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE RIDGE
REMAINS IN PLACE AND THE DRY AIR CONTINUES TO BE ENTRAINED INTO THE
SYSTEM...WITH DISSIPATION FORECAST IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...OR SOONER.

SOME ADJUSTMENTS WERE MADE TO THE POSITION BASED ON VISIBLE 
SATELLITE DATA...WITH THE CENTER RELOCATED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE 
PREVIOUS LOCATION.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS ALSO ADJUSTED TO 285/6.  A 
CONTINUED WEST-NORTHWEST TO WESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED UNTIL 
DISSIPATION IN 36 HOURS.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY NORTH OF 
THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND CLOSE TO THAT OF THE NOGAPS AND BAM SHALLOW 
MODELS. 
 
FORECASTER PASCH/MOLLEDA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     03/2100Z 14.4N 122.4W    25 KTS
12HR VT     04/0600Z 14.6N 123.3W    25 KTS
24HR VT     04/1800Z 14.6N 124.5W    20 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     05/0600Z 14.5N 125.6W    20 KTS...REMNANT LOW
 
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